top of page

Ending the ICE Age – Can e-retrofit help Europe phase out fossil fuel cars?

Summary of the Study
 
Study Objectives

The study, commissioned by Transport & Environment, examines:

  • The challenges posed by the remaining fossil fuel vehicle fleet after 2035.

  • The scalability of various electric retrofit solutions.

  • Regulatory, financial, and other barriers to implementation.

 
Key Findings

Climate Challenge: Even in 2035, 240 million fossil fuel-powered cars will still be on European roads. Without action, COâ‚‚ emissions would be twice as high as what is compatible with the 1.5-degree target.

Social Challenge: A shortage of affordable used electric cars may arise as fossil-fuel vehicles are phased out.

 
E-Retrofit as a Solution

Technology: E-retrofitting replaces the combustion engine and fuel tank with an electric motor and battery.

Regulatory Barriers: The EU currently lacks uniform regulations for widespread retrofit approvals. However, France has already introduced a type-approval process for mass retrofits.

Environmental & Social Benefits:

  • Up to 70% lower COâ‚‚ emissions compared to continuing to operate a fossil fuel car.

  • Up to 40% lower emissions compared to purchasing a new EV.

  • Potential to create up to 900,000 jobs in Europe.

 
Market Potential & Challenges

  • The market is still in its early stages, primarily driven by startups in France.

  • Current retrofit costs are around €16,000, making them less attractive compared to used EVs.

  • Only falling battery prices, economies of scale, and subsidies could make retrofitting a viable economic alternative.

  • Challenges: Limited range of retrofitted vehicles (100–200 km), technical hurdles with modern vehicles featuring complex electronic systems.

 
Future Scenarios

  • Low adoption: 8 million retrofitted vehicles by 2050.

  • High adoption: 50 million e-retrofits, supported by low-emission zones and incentive programs.

  • 1.5-degree scenario: 210 million retrofitted cars, requiring massive political support.

 
Conclusion & Recommendations

  • E-retrofitting could be a viable solution to reduce COâ‚‚ emissions and address the lack of affordable EVs.

  • EU-wide harmonization of approval regulations is necessary.

  • Subsidies could help improve economic feasibility.

  • Automakers should be involved to establish technical standards.

bottom of page